タイトル（掲載誌）CRR Working Paper, Series A
一般注記type:Technical Report
This paper evaluates one of the most drastic reforms of the Japanese public healthinsurance started in year 2006, by numerically examining the reform in an aging Japan ina dynamic context with overlapping generations within a computable generalequilibrium framework. Our simulation results are as follows. First of all, an increase inthe co-payment rate, which is one of the most prominent changes in the reform, wouldresult in higher economic growth as well as higher welfare since it stimulates privatesavings. Secondly, an increasing trend of the future national medical expenditure canmainly be explained by an aging population, and an increase in the co-payment rate haslittle effect to squeeze the national medical expenditure in the future. Thirdly, the effectof a decrease in the national medical expenditure, which can possibly be induced by theimprovement in efficiency in the public provision of medical services, the promotion ofpreventative medical services, or technological progress in the medical field, on thefuture burdens of medical expenditures is very small. Finally, if the governmentimplements a policy to keep the ratio of the national medical expenditure to GDPconstant, then the government has to keep reducing the national medical expenditureover time, and the reduction rate should be 45 percent in year 2050. Such a policy alsoeventuates in lower economic growth until around year 2035. Our simulation resultsthus indicate that the reform is not so effective to reduce the future national medicalexpenditure, but it can achieve higher economic growth by stimulating private savings.
identifier:CRR Working Paper, Series A, No. A-18, pp. 1-45
連携機関・データベース国立情報学研究所 : 学術機関リポジトリデータベース（IRDB）（機関リポジトリ）