Ensemble rainfall–runof and inundation simulations using 100 and 1000 member rainfalls by 4D LETKF on the Kumagawa River fooding 2020
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DOI[10.1186/s40645-023-00537-3]のデータに遷移します
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- 資料種別
- 記事
- 著者・編者
- Kenichiro KobayashiLe DucTakuya Kawabata
- 出版年月日等
- 2023-02-02
- 出版年（W3CDTF）
- 2023-02-02
- タイトル（掲載誌）
- Progress in earth and planetary science
- 巻号年月日等（掲載誌）
- 10(5)
- 掲載巻
- 10(5)
- ISSN（掲載誌）
- 2197-4284
- ISSN-L（掲載誌）
- 2197-4284
- 本文の言語コード
- eng
- DOI
- 10.1186/s40645-023-00537-3
- 国立国会図書館永続的識別子
- info:ndljp/pid/12998720
- コレクション（共通）
- コレクション（障害者向け資料：レベル1）
- コレクション（個別）
- 国立国会図書館デジタルコレクション > 電子書籍・電子雑誌 > その他
- 収集根拠
- オンライン資料収集制度
- 受理日（W3CDTF）
- 2023-09-27T14:40:47+09:00
- 保存日（W3CDTF）
- 2023-04-11
- 記録形式（IMT）
- application/pdf
- オンライン閲覧公開範囲
- 国立国会図書館内限定公開
- デジタル化資料送信
- 図書館・個人送信対象外
- 遠隔複写可否（NDL）
- 可
- 掲載誌（国立国会図書館永続的識別子）
- info:ndljp/pid/12998715
- 連携機関・データベース
- 国立国会図書館 : 国立国会図書館デジタルコレクション
- 要約等
- This paper presents the 1000 ensemble flood simulations using ensemble rainfalls simulated by 4D LETKF. The number of ensemble rainfall members is large as 1000 compared to the operational rainfall products of two-digit numbers to avoid sampling errors in the three-dimensional meteorological simulation based on chaotic theory. Using the large data set, 1000 ensemble rainfall–runoff for dam catchments and high-resolution inundation simulations of large area are carried out focusing on the Kumagawa river catchment. Herewith, the comparisons were carried out with 21-member ensemble rainfalls of an operational forecast by Japan Meteorological Agency and 100-member 4D-LETKF ensemble rainfalls simulated independent of 1000-member 4D-LETKF. At the same time, the accuracy of selective 100-member ensembles out of 1000 members is investigated. As a result, although many previous research works show a large number of ensemble simulations are necessary for three-dimensional meteorological field, the number could be reduced in the catchment-average rainfall–runoff and 2.5-dimensional inundation simulations given that the rainfall prediction has a certain level of accuracy since improving the discharge prediction accuracy with lower dimension is sometimes possible by adjusting the horizontally/vertically integrated model parameters determined by topography and soil characteristics in advance against the observed rainfall. Also, the 1000 ensembles could be classified into several patterns in horizontally accumulated 2D rainfall field. Likewise, the flood flow moves toward the low elevation area and river; thus, the resultant 2.5-dimensional flood field does not show much variety as three-dimensional meteorological simulation. The paper summarizes these studies.
- DOI
- 10.1186/s40645-023-00537-3
- オンライン閲覧公開範囲
- インターネット公開
- 著作権情報
- © The Author(s) 2023.This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- 関連情報（URI）
- 参照
- Geometry of Rainfall Ensemble Means: From Arithmetic Averages to Gaussian-Hellinger Barycenters in Unbalanced Optimal TransportHigh-resolution modeling of pluvial flooding throughout a metropolitan area utilizing open-source data and a supercomputer球磨川流域における最大クラス洪水も考慮した川辺川ダムの治水効果推定Advanced Impact-Based Forecast for a Severe Flood Event Using a 1000-member Ensemble Weather Prediction at Convective-Scale
- 参照
- Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls - Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600-member 4D-EnVar-predicted rainfallsEnsemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfallsNon-Gaussian Probability Densities of Convection Initiation and Development Investigated Using a Particle Filter with a Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction ModelSuboptimal state estimation for continuous-time nonlinear systems from discrete noisy measurementsA convective‐scale 1,000‐member ensemble simulation and potential applicationsScale-Selective Verification of Rainfall Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective EventsEnsemble Kalman Filter data assimilation and storm surge experiments of tropical cyclone NargisRiver flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principlesThe regional model‐based Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System, <scp>MEPS</scp>, at the Japan Meteorological Agencyセルフチューニングコントロール理論による河口堰ゲートの実時間最適制御雨水流法と貯留関数法との相互関係洪水調節を組み込んだ確率洪水予報システムの構築及び2015年鬼怒川洪水への適用The 1000-Member Ensemble Kalman Filtering with the JMA Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model on the K ComputerForecasts of the July 2020 Kyushu Heavy Rain Using a 1000-Member Ensemble Kalman FilterRESERVOIR OPERATION AGAINST LARGE-SCALE FLOODS DUE TO TYPHOON HAGIBIS AND APPLICABILITY OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST TO PRELIMINARY RELEASEEnsemble flash flood predictions using a high-resolution nationwide distributed rainfall-runoff model : case study of the heavy rain event of July 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in 2019
- 連携機関・データベース
- 国立情報学研究所 : CiNii Research
- 提供元機関・データベース
- 学術機関リポジトリデータベース雑誌記事索引データベースCrossref科学研究費助成事業データベースCrossrefCrossrefCrossrefCrossref
- 書誌ID（NDLBibID）
- 12998720