Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation

Material type: 文書・図像類

Author: Illing, Gerhardほか

Publisher: The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University

Publication date: 2017-11

Material Format: Paper

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Note (General)：: December 2016. Revised November 2017.Why do advanced economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation? What is the role of asset prices an...

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Paper

Material Type: 文書・図像類
Title: Credit Booms, Debt Overhang and Secular Stagnation
Author/Editor: Illing, Gerhard
Ono, Yoshiyasu
Schlegl, Matthias
Author Heading: Illing, Gerhard
Ono, Yoshiyasu
https://nrid.nii.ac.jp/nrid/1000070130763
Schlegl, Matthias
https://nrid.nii.ac.jp/nrid/1000050844982
Publication, Distribution, etc.: The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University
Publication Date: 2017-11
Publication Date (W3CDTF): 2017-11
Periodical title: Institute of Social and Economic Research Discussion Papers
No. or year of volume/issue: 988
Volume: 988
Pages: 1-44
Text Language Code: eng
Subject Heading: Secular Stagnation
Aggregate Demand Deficiency
Liquidity Preferences
Financial Frictions
Leverage
Target Audience: 一般
Note (General): December 2016. Revised November 2017.
Why do advanced economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation? What is the role of asset prices and private sector indebtedness for the transition to and the severity of stagnation? In this paper, we present a stylized money-in-the-utility model with a housing sector and financial imperfections to study the interactions between household debt, liquidity and asset prices in an economy with persistent deation and stagnation. Stagnation occurs in equilibrium when a subset of households has insatiable liquidity preferences and hence prefers to hoard cash over consuming. We show that financially more advanced economies are more likely to enter into persistent stagnation. In addition, stagnation is more severe the higher private sector indebtedness. Moreover, credit or asset price booms can mask the underlying structural transition of an economy into stagnation in the short run though at the costs of severing the stagnation in the long run. These findings are in line with the macroeconomic developments in Japan during its lost decades and other major advanced economies during the Great Recession.
References (URI): URI
https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2016/DP0988R.pdf
Data Provider (Database): 国立情報学研究所 : 学術機関リポジトリデータベース（IRDB）（機関リポジトリ）
https://irdb.nii.ac.jp
Original Data Provider (Database): 大阪大学 : 大阪大学学術情報庫　桜華