A Study on Predictive Data Modeling towards Rural Mobility of Japan for the Sustainable Revitalization of Regional Tourism Activities

• Material Type: 博士論文
• Title: A Study on Predictive Data Modeling towards Rural Mobility of Japan for the Sustainable Revitalization of Regional Tourism Activities
• Author/Editor: ALI, BAKDUR
• Author Heading: ALI, BAKDUR
• Publication Date: 2021-09
• Publication Date (W3CDTF): 2021-09
• Alternative Title: 地域観光活動の持続的活性化のための地方交通の予測データモデリングに関する研究
• Degree grantor/type: 北見工業大学
• Date Granted: 2021-09-06
• Date Granted (W3CDTF): 2021-09-06
• Dissertation Number: 甲第194号
• Degree Type: 博士（工学）
• Conferring No. (Dissertation): 10106甲第194号
• Text Language Code: eng
• Alias of Author: アリ, バクドル
• Subject Heading: Regional development; university-cities; tourism; mobility-ondemand; student decision; public bus services; descriptive analysis; predictive analysis
• Target Audience: 一般
• Note (General): A methodological framework assesses tourism as a multidisciplinary area of study, presenting different variability, performance, the ritualization of practices, and mediation between participants (Ritchie, B. et al., 2005). Influenced by this brief explanation, this thesis attempts to identify organizational responses to the role of on-demand mobility in Japan’s tourism and sustainable rural societies.Therefore, for the simplicity of explanation, while the scientific concepts of the thesis expand, the initial thematic research phases are divided into two parts: First, to explain the current status of rural mobility of Japan as a happening caused by human activities from the conceptual model of tourism theory’s point of view. Second, to predict the fluctuation of prospective on-demand mobility while employing all explicable and obtainable kinds of data within the statistical decision theory applicable domain.Simultaneously, expanded ideas and methods used in this thesis have inspired an intellectual stimulation enriched with the discoveries of previous social science and informatics research towards emphasizing public transportation as an instrument of the social welfare state for providing mobility to the sustainability of regional communities in Japan.Although the philosophy of science has principally recognized the distinction between explanation and prediction, there will be significant benefits in using them appropriately in combination with modern scientific methods, especially in reevaluating social issues related to changing conditions (Shmueli, 2010).In general, regardless of a country’s economic diversity, an accepted opinion is that a higher education institute located in a rural area is an indispensable component of regional development and revitalization models by almost any nation due to university students’ promotion of mobility. Moreover, adapting to the world’s ever-changing values due to globalization policies with suitable regional revitalization models requires solid interaction, communication, and cooperation between higher education institutions, government agencies, and commercial enterprises.Considering the number of interdisciplinary studies in the literature that try to expose the role of universities in promoting rural mobility as an initiative from different angles, there is limited research focused on students’ behaviors, motivations, and challenges (Toprak, 2018).Perhaps, a hidden barrier of this situation practically occurred because university students, especially in local cities, are often accepted as temporary visitors or tourists from the dominant perception of the host communities (Ergun, 2014). Thus, apart from the importance of a university as an institution in developing and revitalizing a city, university students are neglected in many cases even though they play a prime agent role in economically sustaining various local business establishments.Therefore, the expanding frontier of this thesis aims to assist in the determination of the regional revitalization policies of Japan within the norms and understandings ofinternational counterparts’ strategies. Furthermore, while developing a multidisciplinary integrated approach to assess the impacts of public transportation on community development and sustainable livelihoods, the systems of tourism theory were acknowledged as a primary framework of this thesis to disclose the benefits to the topic during the conduction of the study’s experiments (Lohmann, G. and A, Netto., 2017).The specific community defined in this study was Kitami, a rural city in Japan, and university students who enrolled in Kitami Institute of Technology. Kitami is in the Okhotsk subprefecture of Hokkaido, and about 1,800 students have enrolled in the institute. The discussion began with an exploratory data analysis of the existing condition in rural areas from the tourism point of view, using internet-based data sources. According to the preliminary data analysis, some of the highlighted results are: Japan is a unitary island country with a 126.8 million population and one of the most urbanized nations in the OECD (OECD, 2016). Moreover, the population is rapidly aging and has been declining since 2011 (OECD, 2016). Despite nearly 30 years of slow economic growth, the economy is the world’s fourth-largest (World Bank, 2021). The economic value created by the tourism industry is exceptional, and the extraordinary contribution of this value mainly comes from domestic expenditures.For instance, tourism incomes contributed 7.1% of Japan’s GDP in 2019, and 81% of this contribution has formed by domestic expenditures (WTTC, 2021). While domestic tourism expenditures constitute the backbone of Japan’s tourism economy, domestic tourism’s contribution to GDP has steadily declined since 1998 (JTA, 2016). Furthermore, statistics reveal that the people’s traveling trend for touristic leisure inside the country has also declined between 1986 and 2006 (Public Relations Office, 2015) (Public Relations Office, 2018).Perhaps many reasons prevent the Japanese from traveling for leisure. Nevertheless, comparing only past and present data values may not be the best way to evaluate this occurrence properly. A better understanding of the differentiation in the popular trends of the Japanese lifestyle will have appeared with a precise interpretation and inference of the actual situation of people’s daily routines and leisure perspectives.Inevitably, nothing is static in real life, and there are always unexpected events, which may be the most prominent obstacle to predictive studies’ accuracy. Moreover, the parameters of societies themselves are continuously transforming; therefore, the explanation, which tries to comprehend the consequences of happened events, seems to have the upper hand over the prediction, which focuses on estimating the future of the events that have not happened yet. In this context, evaluating these two concepts with an understanding that they complement each other, the organized experiments of this study carried out in two settings: A preliminary experiment presented in this thesis was a comprehensive big data analytics on the demographic structure of the Okhotsk subprefecture as a representative sample of rural regions of Japan. As a result, the anomalies and sustainable development points from the findings for this rural area were used as probabilistic modeling components within the tourism point of view.The necessity of interpreting multiple temporal trends with several parameters due to the structure of the experiment enabled this thesis to utilize probability theory as a secondary thematic framework. Principally, Bayesian inference was characterized toimprove the conceptual quality of probability from the standpoint of the specific conditions of the scenario. Technically, a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used parallel with the Bayesian statistic to improve the probabilistic model’s reliability. Finally, the outcome was illustrated graphically and evaluated in terms of likelihood. This thesis’s main experiment focused on the probable influence of notorious public bus services (PBS) in rural Japan to revitalize declining social life activities by utilizing an opinion survey to gather data from a community sample. The practical applicability of statistical decision theory on the machine learning domain was appropriate to the tertiary thematic framework of this thesis due to the collected data structure of the experiment. The accessibility and economic sustainability of PBS have been neglected in Japan’s rural regions due to several reasons for many years as a finding from the previous experiment. Besides, either associated with the general hardship of living in the rural areas or not, rural cities are also negatively affecting by the migration, especially among young people, to urban areas experiencing a rapid economic expansion.The empirical topic of the experiment was chosen as the current and prospective status of PBS in Kitami within the limits of on-demand mobility. The method was to estimate the fluctuation of future on-demand mobility as an entry point to explore the impact of the challenges of living in a rural city in terms of university student’s daily life needs. Furthermore, the analyzed inquiry aimed to evaluate the weight of university students’ daily needs on the quality improvement of these public services as potential beneficiaries.As a result, with deliberately selected a two-step verification probe from the peculiarities of the Kitami Institute of Technology students’ community, while the initial demand rate for PBS was around 60%, this score increased to 71% in the second confirmation. Moreover, the expected demand rate was over 90% of the F-measure after employing machine learning-based prediction methods to the collected data. Still, the most trustworthy and steady forecast approach accounted for 82% with the weight of other daily living variables.Finally, the approach provided actual proof regarding the usability of the selected methodology to obtain appropriate data and analyze it correctly. In conclusion, the outcomes of this unique case-based study are expected to assist local governments and relevant private initiatives in developing foresight and reducing the time it takes to make their decisions. The scientific contentment derived from the compilation of this thesis can be outlined as a humanitarian aspiration for the flexibility to assemble reliable and sustainable responses against the ever-changing requirements of social life.; 方法論的枠組みにおいて、「観光」は、当事者間における種々の行動や変動性、習慣、調停などを扱う学際的研究分野とみなすことができる (Ritchie, B. etal., 2005)。本論文では、この見地に基づき、日本の地域社会における観光と持続可能性に対して、オンデマンドモビリティに期待される役割を明らかにすることを試みる。社会科学および情報科学分野において得られた複数の成果を組み合わせて拡張することで、日本の地域社会の持続可能社会に資するモビリティを提供する社会福祉的手段としての公共交通の可能性について考察する。議論を簡単にするために、本研究の主要部分を二つに区別して議論を進める．第一に、日本の地域モビリティの現状を、観光理論の概念モデルを用いて説明することを試みる。第二に、説明可能かつ入手可能なあらゆる種類のデータに基づくケーススタディにより、統計的意思決定論によってオンデマンドモビリティの将来的変動予測を試みる。科学哲学はこれまで説明と予測を区別してきた。この立場に現代科学の客観論的アプローチを持ち込むことは流動性の高い社会問題を客観的に評価する上で大きなメリットとなる [Shmueli, 2010]。一般に、地域社会の高等教育機関は、国家の経済的多様性に関係なく学生の流動性を促進させる地域開発・活性化モデルにとって欠かせない要素であることが知られている。さらに、グローバル化政策によって変化し続ける世界の価値観に適応し、適切な地域活性化モデルを構築するためには、高等教育機関と政府機関、商業企業との間で緊密な交流と連携が必要となる。近年、観光情報学という学問領域が注目されるようになっている。これは、社会学的観点による分析研究が中心であった観光に関わる処処の系統的研究に対して、情報科学的アプローチを持ち込むことで新たな切り口からの客観的解釈を与えたり、データ分析に基づく定量的解釈を与える研究やICT 応用による技術支援の提案やそれらが観光分野にもたらす効果を議論する分野である。本論文は、観光情報学に分類される研究である。統計的アプローチと人工知能技術を用いてまとまったデータを精密に分析することにより、日本の地方観光の課題を、巨視的視点からの分析と微視的視点から確率的に説明するとともに、その持続可能性を予測できることを明らかにした。第一に、OECD が公開している世界各国の経済活動に関するビッグデータを用い、ベイズ統計とモンテカルロシミュレーションを組み合わせて適用することによって、観光の側面から日本の地方経済の現状を確率的にモデリングし、分析を行なった。第二に、大学生を対象としたアンケートによって地方公共バス運行サービスの利用動向と同サービスに対する意識調査を行い、得られた回答データを詳細に統計解析することで、大学生が持つ公共バス運行サービスへの潜在的需要と持続的変化を明らかにした。そして、上記課題について考察を行うとともに地域観光産業に与える影響を考察した。本研究の具体的アプローチは確率モデリングによる分析と予測が中心であるが、加えて、人工知能アプローチに基づく定量分析・予測手法を提案し、統計的モデリングとの比較によって同手法が需要率の変化を十分予測できる性能を持つことも明らかにした。分析結果に対する考察において、将来の持続可能性（サスティナビリティ）に関連する主要な課題を定量的に明らかにした点は、観光を通した地域経済活動に重要な示唆を与えるとともに、観光情報学分野ならびに社会科学的にも貢献してすること大なるものがある。地方公共モビリティの効果についてはこれまで定量的研究は進んでいなかったため、本研究によって得られた知見は今後の持続可能地域社会を考える上で重要な示唆を与えるものである。
• DOI: 10.19000/0002000148; https://doi.org/10.19000/0002000148
• Persistent ID (NDL): info:ndljp/pid/11765578; https://dl.ndl.go.jp/pid/11765578
• Collection: 障害者向け資料
• Collection (Materials For Handicapped People:1): テキストデータ
• Collection (particular): 国立国会図書館デジタルコレクション > デジタル化資料 > 博士論文; https://dl.ndl.go.jp/collections/A00014
• Acquisition Basis: 博士論文（自動収集）
• Date Accepted (W3CDTF): 2021-10-05T14:27:03+09:00
• Format (IMT): application/pdf
• Access Restrictions: 国立国会図書館内限定公開
• Service for the Digitized Contents Transmission Service: 図書館・個人送信対象外
• Availability of remote photoduplication service: 可
• Periodical Title (URI): http://dx.doi.org/10.19000/0002000148; https://kitami-it.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/2000148
• Data Provider (Database): 国立国会図書館 : 国立国会図書館デジタルコレクション; https://dl.ndl.go.jp

• Summary, etc.: A methodological framework assesses tourism as a multidisciplinary area of study, presenting different variability, performance, the ritualization of ...